Monte Carlo tournament simulations powered by Elo rating, squad strength, recent form, and historical World Cup data. Updated live as matches conclude.
Round of 16 Live: Argentina vs. Egypt is underway with Egypt leading 1-0 at halftime after Yasser Ibrahim's header. Lionel Messi's penalty was saved — the first time Argentina has trailed in the tournament. Belgium defeated the USMNT 4-1. France, Spain, Norway, and England have all advanced to the quarterfinals.
Next matches: France vs. Morocco (July 9), Spain vs. Belgium (July 10), Norway vs. England (July 11), and the Argentina/Egypt vs. Switzerland/Colombia winner (July 11).
The model's live probability for Argentina to win the tournament has shifted from 18.2% pre-match to 12.8% after conceding first and the penalty miss.